Covid Report for Family

Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

• This page shows COVID data broken down into regions that affect our family. It pulls from publicly available raw data from the NY Times, which is reported daily. It’s on a one-day lag, so when you see this report, the most recent day included will be that reported the day prior.
• The table of contents above summarizes the major sections and can be used to jump to those sections.
• Each major section is then divided into tabs to allow you to more easily shuffle between geographies and metrics.
  • If you open on your phone, I don’t believe the tabs will work, so you’ll just see the page as one long, continuous document.
• More detailed descriptions and context can be found in each section.

Growth rates

Heat maps

• The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
• The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
• The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
• The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
  • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
  • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

• This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
  • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
• Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
• Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
  • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
  • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

• This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
  • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
• Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
• Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
  • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
  • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

• This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
• For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
  • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)

Ranking	State	Cases Per Million
1	North Dakota	142,615
2	Rhode Island	141,686
3	South Dakota	139,528
4	Utah	125,032
5	Tennessee	123,008
6	Arizona	119,547
7	Iowa	116,697
8	Nebraska	114,717
9	Wisconsin	114,589
10	Oklahoma	113,824
11	South Carolina	113,663
12	New Jersey	113,553
13	Arkansas	111,941
14	Delaware	109,206
15	Indiana	109,071
16	Alabama	108,379
17	Illinois	107,464
18	Kansas	107,432
19	New York	106,598
20	Idaho	105,998
21	Florida	105,940
22	Mississippi	105,485
23	Minnesota	104,549
24	Nevada	103,647
25	Montana	103,115
26	Georgia	102,363
27	Wyoming	101,657
28	Kentucky	101,373
29	Massachusetts	101,331
30	Texas	100,715
31	Louisiana	99,706
32	Missouri	98,888
33	Michigan	96,800
34	Connecticut	96,473
35	New Mexico	95,399
36	California	95,203
37	North Carolina	94,617
38	Alaska	93,797
39	Ohio	92,884
40	Pennsylvania	92,318
41	Colorado	91,757
42	West Virginia	87,534
43	Virginia	78,212
44	Maryland	75,093
45	New Hampshire	71,289
46	District of Columbia	68,412
47	Washington	55,007
48	Puerto Rico	53,023
49	Maine	47,943
50	Oregon	45,620
51	Vermont	37,830
52	Hawaii	23,817

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)

Ranking	State	New Cases Per Million
1	Colorado	209
2	Michigan	189
3	Maine	172
4	Rhode Island	163
5	West Virginia	162
6	Minnesota	151
7	Nevada	137
8	North Carolina	137
9	Florida	136
10	Delaware	134
11	Alaska	133
12	Washington	131
13	Pennsylvania	130
14	Oregon	127
15	Louisiana	125
16	Illinois	124
17	Wyoming	122
18	Connecticut	115
19	New Mexico	111
20	Idaho	106
21	Indiana	106
22	New Hampshire	105
23	Tennessee	98
24	Nebraska	97
25	New York	94
26	North Dakota	93
27	Massachusetts	91
28	Puerto Rico	87
29	Mississippi	86
30	Vermont	86
31	Ohio	83
32	Arizona	81
33	South Carolina	79
34	Kentucky	77
35	Texas	77
36	South Dakota	76
37	Montana	69
38	Utah	69
39	Iowa	66
40	Wisconsin	65
41	Oklahoma	63
42	Georgia	62
43	Maryland	61
44	Virginia	57
45	Missouri	56
46	District of Columbia	55
47	Alabama	44
48	Arkansas	44
49	Hawaii	43
50	California	39
51	Kansas	39
52	New Jersey	39

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)

Ranking	State	Deaths Per Million
1	New Jersey	2,909
2	New York	2,685
3	Massachusetts	2,567
4	Rhode Island	2,543
5	Mississippi	2,432
6	Arizona	2,394
7	Connecticut	2,287
8	Louisiana	2,248
9	Alabama	2,240
10	South Dakota	2,239
11	Pennsylvania	2,081
12	North Dakota	2,010
13	Indiana	1,995
14	New Mexico	1,960
15	Michigan	1,952
16	Illinois	1,942
17	Arkansas	1,911
18	Iowa	1,898
19	South Carolina	1,863
20	Georgia	1,860
21	Nevada	1,788
22	Tennessee	1,785
23	Texas	1,754
24	Kansas	1,736
25	Oklahoma	1,726
26	Delaware	1,688
27	Florida	1,668
28	Ohio	1,663
29	California	1,578
30	District of Columbia	1,577
31	West Virginia	1,525
32	Missouri	1,524
33	Kentucky	1,503
34	Montana	1,490
35	Maryland	1,467
36	Wisconsin	1,316
37	Minnesota	1,300
38	Virginia	1,279
39	Wyoming	1,230
40	Nebraska	1,226
41	North Carolina	1,222
42	Idaho	1,152
43	Colorado	1,130
44	New Hampshire	969
45	Puerto Rico	746
46	Washington	740
47	Utah	697
48	Oregon	606
49	Maine	592
50	Alaska	456
51	Vermont	402
52	Hawaii	342

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)

Ranking	State	New Deaths Per Million
1	Michigan	4
2	Delaware	2
3	Florida	2
4	Kentucky	2
5	Rhode Island	2
6	Arkansas	1
7	Connecticut	1
8	District of Columbia	1
9	Illinois	1
10	Indiana	1
11	Louisiana	1
12	Maryland	1
13	Massachusetts	1
14	Mississippi	1
15	Missouri	1
16	Nevada	1
17	New Jersey	1
18	New Mexico	1
19	New York	1
20	North Dakota	1
21	Oregon	1
22	Pennsylvania	1
23	Puerto Rico	1
24	Tennessee	1
25	Texas	1
26	Utah	1
27	Vermont	1
28	Virginia	1
29	Washington	1
30	West Virginia	1
31	Wyoming	1
32	Alabama	0
33	Alaska	0
34	Arizona	0
35	California	0
36	Colorado	0
37	Georgia	0
38	Hawaii	0
39	Idaho	0
40	Iowa	0
41	Kansas	0
42	Maine	0
43	Minnesota	0
44	Montana	0
45	Nebraska	0
46	New Hampshire	0
47	North Carolina	0
48	Ohio	0
49	Oklahoma	0
50	South Carolina	0
51	South Dakota	0
52	Wisconsin	0

Counties

• This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
  • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
• In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.

County	State	Cases Per Million	Raw Ranking	Percentile
Chattahoochee	Georgia	367,654	1	99
Crowley	Colorado	361,162	2	99
Bent	Colorado	274,520	3	99
Dewey	South Dakota	249,830	4	99
Lincoln	Arkansas	246,007	5	99
Davidson	Tennessee	142,074	188	94
Richland	South Carolina	112,036	987	68
York	South Carolina	111,030	1023	67
Orange	California	85,299	2215	29
Pierce	Washington	56,976	2859	9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.

County	State	Deaths Per Million	Raw Ranking	Percentile
Foard	Texas	8,658	1	99
Galax city	Virginia	8,193	2	99
Jerauld	South Dakota	7,948	3	99
Emporia city	Virginia	7,856	4	99
Hancock	Georgia	7,686	5	99
Orange	California	1,580	1820	42
Davidson	Tennessee	1,354	2086	33
York	South Carolina	1,352	2090	33
Richland	South Carolina	1,345	2098	33
Pierce	Washington	732	2739	12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

• This section shows the raw counts over time for the U.S., our states, and our counties for four categories:
  • Total confirmed cases: This is the cumulative total of cases reported.
  • New confirmed cases: This is the number of new cases reported on each respective date.
    • For the U.S. and states, a trendline shows the rolling 7-day average of new cases, to help better visualize the peak.
  • Total deaths: This is the cumulative total of deaths reported.
  • New deaths: This is the number of new deaths reported on each respective date.
    • For the U.S. and states, a trendline shows the rolling 7-day average of new deaths, to help better visualize the peak.

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons

• This section is a work in progress. It’s exploring what effect stay-at-home orders have on spread. It’s inherentely messy because some states have localized orders but not orders for their full state and because states implemented the orders at different times.
  • The first plot shows a rolling 3-day average of new cases per million residents, averaged across 2 groups of states – those with a state-wide stay-at-home order in effect and those without. The size of the dots reflect the number of states in each group for each given day (so the dots are getting bigger over time for the group with orders, as more states implement those orders).
    • So far, this view doesn’t show if these orders are “working” or not. Instead, the biggest takeaway from the current plot is that the states that implemented orders are reacting to having worse spread, which is why the case rate is so much higher at the start for them. As a state decides it has a problem and implements an order, it joins the grouping of states with orders and drives the rate up for that group.
    • Over time (if the policies work), what we’d expect is that the line for the group with orders flattens or declines in relation to the no-order group. It also may become moot if all states issue orders.
    • As states start rescending their orders, I’ll put them back into the no-order group, so the no-order group should beging to expand again.
  • The second plot tracks progress of states by the number of days since orders have been in effect. It includes only those states with orders and shows their average new case growth rate (a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates) based on how long it’s been since the order went into effect. Again, the size of the dots show how many states are included in each point – i.e., as you go further right, the dots are smaller because less states are that far past their order.
    • I’m working on how to add a baseline to this chart to compare to states without orders, but that’s challenging because there’s no way to fully align timing.