Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 142,615
2 Rhode Island 141,686
3 South Dakota 139,528
4 Utah 125,032
5 Tennessee 123,008
6 Arizona 119,547
7 Iowa 116,697
8 Nebraska 114,717
9 Wisconsin 114,589
10 Oklahoma 113,824
11 South Carolina 113,663
12 New Jersey 113,553
13 Arkansas 111,941
14 Delaware 109,206
15 Indiana 109,071
16 Alabama 108,379
17 Illinois 107,464
18 Kansas 107,432
19 New York 106,598
20 Idaho 105,998
21 Florida 105,940
22 Mississippi 105,485
23 Minnesota 104,549
24 Nevada 103,647
25 Montana 103,115
26 Georgia 102,363
27 Wyoming 101,657
28 Kentucky 101,373
29 Massachusetts 101,331
30 Texas 100,715
31 Louisiana 99,706
32 Missouri 98,888
33 Michigan 96,800
34 Connecticut 96,473
35 New Mexico 95,399
36 California 95,203
37 North Carolina 94,617
38 Alaska 93,797
39 Ohio 92,884
40 Pennsylvania 92,318
41 Colorado 91,757
42 West Virginia 87,534
43 Virginia 78,212
44 Maryland 75,093
45 New Hampshire 71,289
46 District of Columbia 68,412
47 Washington 55,007
48 Puerto Rico 53,023
49 Maine 47,943
50 Oregon 45,620
51 Vermont 37,830
52 Hawaii 23,817

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Colorado 209
2 Michigan 189
3 Maine 172
4 Rhode Island 163
5 West Virginia 162
6 Minnesota 151
7 Nevada 137
8 North Carolina 137
9 Florida 136
10 Delaware 134
11 Alaska 133
12 Washington 131
13 Pennsylvania 130
14 Oregon 127
15 Louisiana 125
16 Illinois 124
17 Wyoming 122
18 Connecticut 115
19 New Mexico 111
20 Idaho 106
21 Indiana 106
22 New Hampshire 105
23 Tennessee 98
24 Nebraska 97
25 New York 94
26 North Dakota 93
27 Massachusetts 91
28 Puerto Rico 87
29 Mississippi 86
30 Vermont 86
31 Ohio 83
32 Arizona 81
33 South Carolina 79
34 Kentucky 77
35 Texas 77
36 South Dakota 76
37 Montana 69
38 Utah 69
39 Iowa 66
40 Wisconsin 65
41 Oklahoma 63
42 Georgia 62
43 Maryland 61
44 Virginia 57
45 Missouri 56
46 District of Columbia 55
47 Alabama 44
48 Arkansas 44
49 Hawaii 43
50 California 39
51 Kansas 39
52 New Jersey 39

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,909
2 New York 2,685
3 Massachusetts 2,567
4 Rhode Island 2,543
5 Mississippi 2,432
6 Arizona 2,394
7 Connecticut 2,287
8 Louisiana 2,248
9 Alabama 2,240
10 South Dakota 2,239
11 Pennsylvania 2,081
12 North Dakota 2,010
13 Indiana 1,995
14 New Mexico 1,960
15 Michigan 1,952
16 Illinois 1,942
17 Arkansas 1,911
18 Iowa 1,898
19 South Carolina 1,863
20 Georgia 1,860
21 Nevada 1,788
22 Tennessee 1,785
23 Texas 1,754
24 Kansas 1,736
25 Oklahoma 1,726
26 Delaware 1,688
27 Florida 1,668
28 Ohio 1,663
29 California 1,578
30 District of Columbia 1,577
31 West Virginia 1,525
32 Missouri 1,524
33 Kentucky 1,503
34 Montana 1,490
35 Maryland 1,467
36 Wisconsin 1,316
37 Minnesota 1,300
38 Virginia 1,279
39 Wyoming 1,230
40 Nebraska 1,226
41 North Carolina 1,222
42 Idaho 1,152
43 Colorado 1,130
44 New Hampshire 969
45 Puerto Rico 746
46 Washington 740
47 Utah 697
48 Oregon 606
49 Maine 592
50 Alaska 456
51 Vermont 402
52 Hawaii 342

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Michigan 4
2 Delaware 2
3 Florida 2
4 Kentucky 2
5 Rhode Island 2
6 Arkansas 1
7 Connecticut 1
8 District of Columbia 1
9 Illinois 1
10 Indiana 1
11 Louisiana 1
12 Maryland 1
13 Massachusetts 1
14 Mississippi 1
15 Missouri 1
16 Nevada 1
17 New Jersey 1
18 New Mexico 1
19 New York 1
20 North Dakota 1
21 Oregon 1
22 Pennsylvania 1
23 Puerto Rico 1
24 Tennessee 1
25 Texas 1
26 Utah 1
27 Vermont 1
28 Virginia 1
29 Washington 1
30 West Virginia 1
31 Wyoming 1
32 Alabama 0
33 Alaska 0
34 Arizona 0
35 California 0
36 Colorado 0
37 Georgia 0
38 Hawaii 0
39 Idaho 0
40 Iowa 0
41 Kansas 0
42 Maine 0
43 Minnesota 0
44 Montana 0
45 Nebraska 0
46 New Hampshire 0
47 North Carolina 0
48 Ohio 0
49 Oklahoma 0
50 South Carolina 0
51 South Dakota 0
52 Wisconsin 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 367,654 1 99
Crowley Colorado 361,162 2 99
Bent Colorado 274,520 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 249,830 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 246,007 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 142,074 188 94
Richland South Carolina 112,036 987 68
York South Carolina 111,030 1023 67
Orange California 85,299 2215 29
Pierce Washington 56,976 2859 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,193 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,686 5 99
Orange California 1,580 1820 42
Davidson Tennessee 1,354 2086 33
York South Carolina 1,352 2090 33
Richland South Carolina 1,345 2098 33
Pierce Washington 732 2739 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons